Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Fed cuts interest rate by 1/2% - to 4.75% - and signals more cuts could be coming

The Federal Reserve cut the target on a key short-term interest rate by half of a percentage point Tuesday to 4.75% in a bold acknowledgement that the central bank is concerned the mortgage meltdown plaguing Wall Street and Main Street could hurt the economy.

The Fed also indicated that more rate cuts could be on the way, news that investors cheered.

The cut to the federal funds rate, the first since June 2003, was widely anticipated by investors and followed a surprise cut to the Fed's discount rate on Aug. 17. The only question was whether the Fed would lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. (There are 100 basis points in a full percentage point.)

On Tuesday, the Fed also cut its discount rate by another half of a point to 5.25 percent. The central bank said that the vote to lower both rates was unanimous.

Some investors had thought that Fed chair Ben Bernanke would take a more cautious approach and not cut rates by such a large margin, because a half-point cut could signal the Fed was acting out of desperation to save the economy.

The federal funds rate, an overnight lending rate that banks charge each other, is important since it influences the amount of interest consumers must pay for various types of debt, such as credit cards, home equity lines of credit and auto loans. The rate cut should help some beleaguered home borrowers who are set to see monthly payments on adjustable rate mortgages rise later this year.

In its statement, the Fed said that "the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally" and that the rate cut "is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time."

The Fed cut also hurts rates of return on investments, which gives foreign investors less incentive to invest in US securities. This has sent the Dollar much lower against the currency of most major foreign countries. This makes foreign goods more expensive for us to buy, which adds to inflation pressures.

Overall, the Fed cut is good news for the economy, but may nudge inflation a bit higher.

Although the federal funds rate and the discount rate doesn't directly affect mortgage interest rates, there will be a trickle-down effect. Already stocks had its largest gain since 2003, and bond rates are likely to decrease more, which will likely push mortgage rates down.

How do bond rates affect mortgage rates? I'll post an FAQ that was published in my newsletter earlier this year.

Sources: CNN and MMG II, LLC.

No comments: